Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 52
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO 20 MILES EAST OF ROME GEORGIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSIFYING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEAST AR...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MS...INTO NORTHWEST AL. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL PROMOTE ROTATING CELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 52 SEVERE TSTM AL AR GA LA MS TN 181830Z - 190200Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65SW GLH/GREENVILLE MS/ - 20E RMG/ROME GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /21NE MLU - 40SSE GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 33529176 35068481 33638481 32089176
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 52 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 52
VALID 182205Z - 182340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MLU
TO 30 NE JAN TO 25 E BHM TO 20 WSW CHA.
..MOSIER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-015-019-029-047-063-065-091-105-117-119-121-182340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLEBURNE DALLAS GREENE
HALE MARENGO PERRY
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-213-295-313-182340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
MURRAY WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
MSC023-029-031-049-061-065-067-069-075-077-099-101-121-123-127-
129-182340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON
HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE NESHOBA NEWTON
RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON
SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 52
VALID 182030Z - 182140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N GWO TO
20 N CBM TO 30 SW MSL.
..GARNER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-015-019-029-033-043-047-049-055-057-059-063-065-071-
073-075-077-079-083-089-091-093-095-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-
125-127-133-182140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN
CHEROKEE CLEBURNE COLBERT
CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB
ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HALE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARENGO MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PERRY PICKENS
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
ARC003-017-182140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-213-295-313-182140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
MURRAY WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
LAC035-065-067-123-182140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-015-019-025-043-049-051-053-055-069-075-079-083-087-089-
097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155-159-163-
182140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LEFLORE LOWNDES MADISON
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
TNC051-103-127-182140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN LINCOLN MOORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 52
VALID 181935Z - 182040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N GWO TO
20 N CBM TO 30 SW MSL.
..GARNER..03/18/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-015-019-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-063-065-071-073-
075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-133-
182040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN
CHEROKEE CLEBURNE COLBERT
CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE
HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
ARC003-017-182040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
GAC015-047-055-083-115-129-143-213-233-295-313-182040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FLOYD GORDON
HARALSON MURRAY POLK
WALKER WHITFIELD
$$
LAC035-065-067-123-182040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC007-015-019-025-043-049-051-053-055-069-075-079-083-087-089-
097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155-159-163-
182040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LEFLORE LOWNDES MADISON
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YAZOO
$$
TNC051-103-127-182040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN LINCOLN MOORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.